Time Series Forecast (Quelle: Landesgesundheitsamt)

Analysis of Time Pattern

Date ResolutionDaily data.
Suggested Seasonality7

Group Summary of Time

PhaseN RowsMissing ValueUnique TimestampsStartEndMissing Record
128NoYes06.03.202002.04.2020No
252NoYes03.04.202024.05.2020No
370NoYes25.05.202002.08.2020No
449NoYes03.08.202020.09.2020No
552NoYes21.09.202011.11.2020No
642NoYes12.11.202023.12.2020No
775NoYes24.12.202008.03.2021No
848NoYes09.03.202125.04.2021No
927NoYes26.04.202122.05.2021No
1050NoYes23.05.202111.07.2021No
1161NoYes12.07.202110.09.2021No
127NoYes11.09.202117.09.2021No

Group Summary of LGA Neuinf./7d/100k

PhaseMinMaxLengthN ObsN MissingAll PositiveComment
1..282828NA
20.622.1525234Yes
3010.7707016No
40.621.4494914Yes
55165.2525214Yes
6109.9329.1424212Yes
737.1298.475752Yes
862.2269.548480Yes
971.6272.627270Yes
100.697.450500Yes
110.611361610Yes
1290.5104.3770Yes



Model Reports


Select Series

Phase
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Phase = 12

Model Type
Model Abbreviation ANN
Error Type Additive
Trend Type None
Damped No
Season Type None
Season
Constrained No

Model Report
Series and Forecasts





Model Summary
-2Loglikelihood7.772882
AIC13.77288
BIC13.61061
Nparm3
Sigma0.77918


Parameter Estimates
ParameterEstimateStd ErrorLower 95%Upper 95%
alpha -7.457770.00001961 -7.45781 -7.45773
l092.116350.0000689292.1162192.11648

One-Step-Ahead Forecasting Errors